Closing Recap

Tuesday, March 03, 2026

After a dreadful overnight futures session (Spuz was down -1.5% and Nasdaq fell as much as -2%) and big declines in Asia and Europe on inflation fears following a second sharp day of oil price hikes, investors once again stayed calm and bought the dip as markets found their footing late morning and pared losses. Today’s market action was eerily similar to yesterday, with markets opening down across the board, made new lows slightly after the open before rebounding late morning as investors continue to take advantage of any market dip. Wall Street shook off signs of a possible prolonged Middel East conflict, surging oil prices (raising inflation fears), reduced bets of interest rate cuts by the Fed due to energy prices, and a surging US dollar and Treasury yields. By early morning NYSE breadth was more than 9:1 decliners leading advancers and all eleven S&P sectors were down at least 1%, with the biggest drops in materials, industrials, and technology. Dip after dip continues to get bought as major averages hold key levels (for instance, the S&P 500 index low of 6710.42 today came just 10 points below the 12-17-25 low of 6720.43 - now over 100 points off those levels). Stocks ended lower across the board heading into some jobs data later this week.

Amid the rising inflation fears due to the recent surge in oil, gasoline, natural gas, interest rate cut bets by the Fed have dropped. Markets are rapidly repricing as rising energy costs push inflation expectations higher and rate cut bets lower.

Latest data from Kalshi shows: 1 cut: ~25%, 2 cuts: ~24%, and 3 cuts: ~19% and falling. At the same time: 5-year inflation expectations rose to 2.54% and odds of 2+ Fed cuts fell to 57% (from 79%). Note Treasury yields, after having tumbled over the last few weeks, are back on the rise with the 2-yr above 3.57% (off lows around 3.375 last week, lowest since Aug 2022) and the 10-yr yield back to 4.11% (after dropping below 4% just last week for first time since November).

Overall, stock markets finished the day lower, but significantly off its worst levels overcoming a confluence of negative factors weighing on investors’ minds such as: tech/AI impact on software, financials, credit exposure for PE, reduced interest rate cut expectations, a stronger dollar, rising Treasury yields, a crypto market that can’t gain traction to the upside, surging oil/inflation fears and concern of a prolonged war with Iran that could impact not just energy prices, but chemicals, agriculture prices which are all intertwined. Financials remain a place of concern for investors, particularly in private credit as Blackstone’s (BX) main $82B private credit fund (BCRED) was hit with a flood of withdrawal requests in the first quarter (requests for total of 7.9% vs, usual max of 5% each quarter), and the firm is taking steps to meet them, including Blackstone and its employees investing some $400M into the fund, known as BCRED (handled different then OWL did a few weeks ago when they initially halted the withdrawals before back tracking).

There were big declines in Europe and Asia overnight as Europe's Stoxx 600 was down -3.18%, Britain's FTSE 100 down -3.04%; Germany's DAX down -3.59%, France's CAC 40 down -3.5%; Spain's Ibex down -4.42%, and Euro Stoxx index down -3.57%. In Asia overnight, The Nikkei Index tumbled -1,778 points or over 3% to settle at 56,279, the Shanghai Index fell -59 points to 4,122, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -291 points to 25,768. In South Korea, the KOSPI stock index fell over -12%, its worst single day drop since the 2024 yen carry crisis, before closing at 5,791.91, down 7.24%).

• Oil prices surged overnight before paring gains late in the day as WTI crude oil settled up +$3.33/bbl, or +4.67%, at $74.56 (off earlier highs of $77.98), while Brent rose $3.66 or 4.71% to settle at $81.40 per barrel (off earlier highs $85.12). Oil prices came down off highs late day after President Trump noted on Truth Social platform that the US government will backstop war insurance for all shipping in the Persian Gulf. In addition, he says the U.S. Navy will provide naval escort to tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The U.S. dollar rises to more than one-month high, up nearly 1% for the DXY dollar index (hit 99.68 high but ended down around 99) and another big gain vs the euro while U.S. Treasury yields shot higher. The euro pared losses late day to around 1.161, down -0.63% but well off morning lows 1.1531

• Footwear & Apparel: shares of ONON shares slide as Q4 adjusted EBITDA rises 31.8%, sales up 22.6% to 743.8M Swiss francs ($949.69M), above estimates of 724.3M francs, but guidance weighed as sees at least 23% sales growth in 2026 on a constant-currency basis, below 30% rise in 2025.
• Auto Parts Retail: AZO reported Q2 EPS $27.63 vs. est. $27.41 (but down from $28.29) while sales of $4.27B was just shy of consensus $4.31B and comp sales growth of 3.3% missed the Wall Street estimate of around +5.6%; AutoZone opened 43 new stores in the U.S., 18 in Mexico and three in Brazil for a total of 64 net new stores.
• Consumer Electronics: BBY Q4 adj EPS $2.61 topped the $2.47 estimate while revs $13.81B, mostly in-line with $13.88B estimate; increased quarterly dividend by 1% to $0.96 per share; guided FY comp sales to be down 1% to up 1%, compared with analysts' estimates of a 1.63% rise and EPS $6.30-$6.60 vs. est $6.65.
• Cruise, online travel and lodging names down again early amid a spike in oil for a second day as inflation fears renewed which could impact consumer discretionary spending, while rising oil prices impact airlines/travel/cruise names (CCL, RCL, NCLH).

• Drones & Aerospace: AVAV shares rebounded after falling over -17% Monday after analysts pointed to potential loss of exclusivity on co's $1.4B contract with U.S. Space Force's Satellite Communications Augmentation Resource (SCAR) program. Today, AVAV issued a statement saying it remains in active negotiations with U.S. Space Force regarding the contract to deliver ground stations to support SCAR; ACHR shares fell after its Q4 net loss increased by $59.0M from Q3’25 to a loss of $188.9M primarily driven by $59.9M increase in operating expenses; Q4 adjusted EBITDA was a loss of (-$137.9M), which is within the guidance range of $110M-$140M.
• In Alternative Power/Solar: PLUG reported markedly improved financials for 2025 vs 2024, has plans to further reduce capital Intensity, and is targeting further improvements in profitability for 2026, targeting positive EBITDA in Q426 (Q4 adj EPS ($0.06) vs est ($0.10) on revs $225.2Mm vs est $217.77Mm).

• In Consumer Lending: TREE Q4 results significantly exceeded expectations, particularly in Insurance, growing 25% Y/Y, and Consumer (small business up 78% Y/Y and personal loans up 10% Y/Y) and Home (benefiting from home equity demand, up 6% Y/Y). Guidance was also strong, with both Q1 and FY26 outlooks well above consensus, driven by continued Insurance momentum and small business scaling. B Riley said the
• In FinTech: DAVE reported a strong quarter and provided 2026 guidance that was well above consensus on revenue and EBITDA (Q4 adj EPS $3.69 vs. consensus $3.75 and revs $163.7M vs. est. $162.28M) and issued better guidance as sees FY26 adj EPS $14.00-$15.00, vs. ests $13.89 and revs $690M-$710M vs. est. $633.33M.

• QURE was downgraded by several Wall Street analysts negative commentary from the Commissioner last week and confirmed Monday that the FDA is not willing to approve AMT-130 in Huntington's disease based on comparison to Natural history.
• TBPH shares tumbled after saying its experimental drug to treat a type of blood pressure disorder failed to meet the main goal in a late-stage study; the company said it is initiating a strategic review, including a possible sale of the company, after its experimental drug failed its study.
• Secondary offerings: BTSG 20M share Spot Secondary priced at $41.15; MAIA 20M share Spot Secondary, priced at $1.50

• In Manage Care: CI announces President & coo Brian Evanko to succeed David M. Cordani as Chief Executive Officer; company reaffirms 2026 financial outlook
• Healthcare Operator: SEM said that it would be taken private by a consortium in a deal that values the healthcare operator at $3.9B. A consortium led by some of its executives, including Executive Chairman Robert Ortenzio, and private equity firm Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe, will pay $16.50 in cash.

• In Chemicals: MOS was downgraded to Equal Weight, stay Overweight on CF at Barclay’s saying the US/Israel strikes on Iran have potential to bolster Nitrogen pricing for at least 1H26, providing further upside for North American producers, given the strain on LNG in the EU. Potash should be fairly stable while Phosphate will face higher ammonia input costs.
• Lithium miners declined (ALB, SQM, SGML, LAC) fall as weaker sales from major electric vehicle manufacturers and escalating Middle East tensions dampened demand prospects. The most-active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 12.99% to close daytime trading at 150,860 yuan a metric ton.

• HPC Data Centers: Bitcoin miners turned HPC data centers CORZ, RIOT reported earnings. Opco notes for CORZ, Financial results remain secondary at the moment given it is still in construction development for its HPC datacenters as the company has 590MW under contract, 1.5GW of leasable pipeline capacity, and 700MW in load studies bringing total potential longer-term capacity to ~2.8GW. CORZ announced a major new site, and by next earnings expects to announce a major new customer and new financing agreement. RIOT posted a top & bottom line miss driven by weakness in mining, while expenses included SG&A grew faster than expectations.

• In PC/Hardware: Apple (AAPL) updated its MacBook Air and MacBook Pro lines, equipping the Air with the M5 chip and the Pro with new M5 Pro and M5 Max processors to boost sales. It also introduced two new Studio Display versions, including a brighter model. The Air follows last year’s M4 release, while the Pro marks its first high-end refresh since late 2024. Apple says both lines are four times faster for AI tasks, with the Air now starting at 512GB and configurable up to 4TB. The Apple 13-inch MacBook air with m5 starts at $1,099 (U.S.), the 15-inch MacBook air with m5 starts at $1,299 (U.S.); said customers can pre-order March 4^th.
• Equipment & Parts: OUST shares rallied after delivered substantial upside to 4Q25 results as it recognized a 1x license payment while guiding 1Q26 ahead of expectations as the Stereolabs acquisition starts to contribute to financials; ZD shares jumped after agreeing to sell its connectivity division to Accenture (ACN) for $1.2B in cash, as the division includes the Ookla, Speedtest, Ekahau, Downdetector and RootMetrics brands.
• Memory sector, which has been one of the top sectors for more than a year (SNDK, MU, WDC) saw massive selling pressure as following a massive decline in South Korea as the Kospi Index tumbled 7.2% today, its worst day in a year and a half (after falling as much as 12%) where shares of memory chip giants Sk Hynix and Samsung Electronics tumbled almost 12% and 10%, respectively.